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What is Behind HRSA's Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortage of Registered Nurses?

 
VI.  References

Aiken, L.H., Clarke, S.P., Sloane, D.M., Sochalski, J., and Silber, J.H. (October 2002). Nurse staffing and patient mortality, nurse burnout, and job dissatisfaction. Journal of the American Medical Association, 288(16): 1987–1993.

American Hospital Association. Hospital Statistics. Various years.

American Nurses Association. (2001). Analysis of American Nurses Association Staffing Survey. Presentation by Cornerstone Communications Group on February 6, 2001.

Askildsen, J.E., Baltagi, B.H., and Holmas, T.H. (2002). Will Increased Wages Reduce Shortage of Nurses? A Panel Data Analysis of Nurses’ Labor Supply. Unpublished manuscript. Available at <http://www.eco.rug.nl/~espe2002/Askildsen.pdf>. Accessed September 2004.

Buerhaus, P.I., Staiger, D.O., and Auerbach, D.I. (2000). Implications of an aging registered nurse workforce. Journal of the American Medical Association, 283(22): 2948–2954.

Bureau of Health Professions. (2001). The Registered Nurse Population, March 2000: Findings from the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses.

Bureau of Health Professions. (2002). Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses: 2000–2020.

Bureau of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Supply Model: Technical Report and User Guide. Report prepared by The Lewin Group for the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

Bureau of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Demand Model: Development and Baseline Projections. Report prepared by The Lewin Group for the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

Bureau of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Demand Model User Guide. Report prepared by The Lewin Group for the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

Dumpe, M.L., Herman, J., and Young, S.W. (1998). Forecasting the nursing workforce in a dynamic healthcare market. Nursing Economics, 16(4): 170–179.

Fritz, M.S. (1999). The Nursing Demand-Based Requirements Forecasting Model. 10th Federal Forecasters Conference, 1999: Papers and Proceedings.

Hogan, P.F., Dall, T.D., Smith, S.G., Mackin, P.C., Mackie, C.D., Darling, K.L., Harris, D.A., McCloy, R.A., and Statman, M.A. (1995). Conceptual Framework for Analyzing and Developing a Compensation System. Report prepared for the Eighth Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation Taskforce.

InterStudy, InterStudy Competitive Edge. Various years.

Lane, J., and Gohmann, S. (1995). Shortage or surplus: Economic and non-economic approaches to the analysis of nursing labor markets. Southern Economic Journal, 61: 644–654.

Minino, A.M., Arias, E., Kochanek, K.D., Murphy, S.L., and Smith, B.L. (September 2002). Deaths: Final data for 2000. National Vital Statistics Reports, 50(15), National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD.

National Council of State Boards of Nursing, Inc. 2000 Licensure and Examination Statistics.

Prescott, P.A. (2000). The enigmatic nursing workforce. Journal of Nursing Administration, 30(2): 59–65.

Robinson, E.S., and Mee, C.L. (2003). Nursing 2003 Salary Survey. Nursing 2003, 33(10):50–53. <http://www.nursingcenter.com/home/index.asp>. Accessed September 2004.

Seago, J.A., Ash, M., Spetz, J., Coffman, J., and Grumbach, K. (2001). Hospital registered nurse shortages: Environmental, patient, and institutional predictors. Health Services Research, 36(5): 831–852.

Sloan, F.A., and Richupan, S. (1975). Short-run supply responses of professional nurses: A microanalysis. The Journal of Human Resources, 10(2):241-257.

Spetz, J. (1999). The effects of managed care and prospective payment on the demand for hospital nurses: Evidence from California. Health Services Research, 34(5): 993–1010.

Spetz, J., and Given, R. (2003). The future of the nurse shortage: will wage increases close the gap? Health Affairs, 22(6):199–206.

Appendix: State-Level Supply, Demand, and Shortage Projections

Exhibit A-1. Baseline FTE RN Supply, by State and Year, 2000 to 2020

STATE

SSRN Estimate

Projection

Change from
2000–2020

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

AK

4,200

3,800

3,200

2,500

2,000

-52%

AL

29,900

33,700

36,600

38,200

39,100

31%

AR

16,400

18,100

19,300

19,800

19,900

21%

AZ

29,000

30,100

30,700

30,500

30,100

4%

CA

155,500

156,200

153,300

148,200

144,300

-7%

CO

28,100

28,300

27,200

25,100

23,000

-18%

CT

28,000

25,400

22,900

19,900

17,200

-39%

DC

7,300

6,900

6,500

5,900

5,400

-26%

DE

6,100

6,300

6,300

6,100

5,800

-5%

FL

108,100

111,100

112,000

110,200

106,600

-1%

GA

49,400

49,500

48,200

45,300

41,800

-15%

HI

7,200

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,200

14%

IA

25,200

26,300

26,600

26,000

25,000

-1%

ID

7,000

7,300

7,400

7,300

7,100

1%

IL

88,100

88,000

85,600

81,900

77,100

-12%

IN

41,400

41,800

41,600

40,400

38,500

-7%

KS

20,600

21,600

22,100

21,800

21,100

2%

KY

28,800

32,300

34,700

35,500

35,300

23%

LA

30,200

34,100

37,200

39,100

39,800

32%

MA

63,600

62,700

60,100

56,000

51,400

-19%

MD

36,400

36,500

35,600

33,800

31,800

-13%

ME

11,200

11,600

11,600

11,100

10,500

-6%

MI

70,000

72,400

72,000

68,900

66,000

-6%

MN

39,200

41,000

41,800

41,200

39,700

1%

MO

44,400

45,600

45,700

44,200

42,800

-4%

MS

18,400

20,900

22,600

23,600

23,800

29%

MT

6,400

6,500

6,500

6,300

5,900

-8%

NC

59,900

64,500

67,400

68,600

68,000

14%

ND

5,400

5,700

5,800

5,800

5,600

4%

NE

13,300

14,100

14,700

14,900

14,900

12%

NH

9,300

9,500

9,300

8,800

8,100

-13%

NJ

60,400

58,200

55,000

50,500

44,900

-26%

NM

9,600

10,500

11,000

11,300

11,500

20%

NV

9,000

9,300

9,200

8,700

8,100

-10%

NY

138,100

142,600

142,300

137,400

131,500

-5%

OH

86,900

89,300

88,900

85,500

79,700

-8%

OK

18,900

20,600

21,500

22,100

22,500

19%

OR

21,800

22,600

22,400

21,100

19,800

-9%

PA

111,800

105,900

99,200

90,600

80,400

-28%

RI

9,300

9,300

9,000

8,400

7,900

-15%

SC

23,400

25,100

25,900

26,200

26,000

11%

SD

7,000

7,600

7,900

7,900

7,800

11%

TN

40,900

42,700

42,800

41,800

40,100

-2%

TX

107,600

115,300

118,700

119,000

118,500

10%

UT

11,400

12,900

14,100

14,900

15,400

35%

VA

46,300

47,600

47,600

46,300

44,000

-5%

VT

4,900

5,000

4,800

4,400

4,000

-18%

WA

37,900

38,100

37,300

35,100

33,000

-13%

WI

41,300

42,900

43,300

42,200

40,100

-3%

WV

13,200

14,200

14,600

14,600

14,000

6%

WY

3,200

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

3%

U.S. a

1,890,700

1,942,500

1,941,200

1,886,100

1,808,000

-4%

a Due to rounding, national totals might fail to equal the sum across states.

Exhibit A-2. Baseline FTE RN Demand, by State and Year, 2000 to 2020

State

SSRN Estimate

Projection

Change from 2000–2020

1996

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

AK

4,400

4,300

4,900

5,500

6,100

6,700

56%

AL

30,900

31,400

33,900

36,800

40,300

44,400

41%

AR

16,100

18,500

20,200

22,000

24,300

26,900

45%

AZ

28,900

34,000

38,700

43,200

48,500

54,700

61%

CA

159,500

165,500

178,700

200,900

228,900

260,900

58%

CO

27,500

30,000

34,000

38,100

42,500

47,500

58%

CT

28,200

30,200

31,800

34,000

36,600

39,600

31%

DC

8,500

8,800

8,900

9,500

10,200

11,000

25%

DE

5,800

6,400

7,000

7,600

8,10