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Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020

 

Printer-friendly Physician Supply & Demand Report
Background
Physician Supply Model
Current Physician Workforce
New Entrants and Choice of Medical Specialty
Separations from the Physician Workforce
Trends in Physician Productivity
Physician Supply Projections
Physician Requirements Model
Growth and Aging of the Population
Medical Insurance Trends
Economic Factors
Other Potential Determinants of Demand for Physicians
Physician Requirements Projections
Assessing the Adequacy of Current and Future Supply
Summary

References

 

Exhibit 31. Alternative Requirements Projections

Line Graph
Vertical Axis: Physician Requirements
Numbered from 800,000 to 1,150,000 in increments of 50,000
Horizontal Axis: Year from 2000 to 2020 in increments of 5
Color-coded Lines:
Blue: Baseline
Yellow: Growing Role of NPCs
Purple: Physician Productivity increase
Red: Economic Growth offset by productivity increase
Green: Economic Growth

Physician Requirements
Year 2005 2020
Green 800,000 1,112,000
Blue 800,000 976,000
Red 800,000 956,000
Yellow 800,000 886,000
Purple 800,000 839,000

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